NRF: 2025 holiday retail sales to surpass $1 trillion for the first time
In its annual holiday forecast, the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts retail sales in November and December will grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024. That translates to total 2025 holiday retail sales between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion. By comparison, last year’s holiday sales rose 4.3% over 2023 to reach $976.1 billion.
Despite economic, tariff and government shutdown-related concerns, NRF predicts that Americans will still invest and budget for holiday spending in 2025 — even as consumer cut back on other spending categories such as dining out and entertainment.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” said Matthew Shay, president and and CEO of NRF. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
Said Mark Mathews, chief economist and executive director of research at NRF, “The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation. As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies.”
Additionally, NRF reports that more consumers plan to shop around Black Friday than in years prior as they seek sales and promotions.
While retailers are hiring additional support to meet consumer demand this holiday season, it falls below prior years’ hiring. NRF expects retailers to hire 265,000 to 365,000 seasonal workers, in line with a slower-paced labor market. By comparison, there were 442,000 seasonal hires in 2024.
Mathews added that while seasonal hiring normally supports the job market this time of year, some hiring may have been pulled forward to support retailers’ holiday buying events in October. Because of the ongoing tariff situation, retailers will be closely monitoring spending patterns and waiting to make staff additions should demand strengthen throughout the holiday season.
A notable headwind this year is the federal government shutdown, the timing of which is particularly challenging just before the holiday season. Delays in federal spending will result in a loss of private-sector income, further eroding consumer demand. While many negative economic impacts are expected to be temporary, their magnitude will escalate the longer the shutdown lasts.
NRF’s latest holiday survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, which is separate from the holiday sales forecast, found that consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items. The amount is the second highest in the survey’s 23-year history.
NRF’s holiday forecast is based on economic modeling using various key economic indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales releases. NRF’s calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.
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