Retailers watch fuel costs, tariffs as U.S. port imports soften in 2026
U.S. import volumes at major container ports are being pressured more by tariffs than by the conflict in Iran, though rising fuel costs tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockage could add costs across the supply chain, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The report said ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million TEU in February, excluding data not yet reported by the Port of New York and New Jersey. That was down 7.5% from January and 4.2% from a year earlier. March was projected at 1.97 million TEU, down 8.3% year over year.
Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said retailers are tracking the situation closely while also dealing with higher tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said little U.S. container cargo comes from the region, but higher fuel prices are increasing shipping costs worldwide and could contribute to inflation.
April imports are predicted at 2.08 million TEU, down 5.6% from a year earlier. May is predicted at 2.09 million TEU, up 7.3%, and June at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.9%. The report said those gains are largely tied to weak comparisons from 2025, when imports fell after tariffs announced in April that year.
For the first half of 2026, imports are predicted at 12.3 million TEU, down 1.8% from 12.53 million TEU in the same period of 2025. Full-year imports totaled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, down 0.3% from 2024.
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